You’ll blog again. We’ll help you. Oh, I need to go make another $50 online donation to the Obama campaign. I’ll check back in shortly.

MSNBC….to close to call. Clinton 0, Obama 0. w00t!

Too close to call!

Huh? Hillary wins? I better go donate more to Obama.

I thought god voted GOP…..?

surely bush hasn’t lied.

you are lookin’ good PL.

drinks, Que?

bunny teeth!

54-46? I’ll take that shit.

Re: 6. Pink Lady

You should wear the lace outfit to work tomorrow.

Now the talking head media (a description meant to exclude you, Pink Lady) will go into overdrive to push Obama back into the winning position. This was her high water mark, don’t you think? I don’t see either side backing down for a while.

It’ll be better that 54-46 when the rurals come in…I think my 55-45 guess is looking good!

Re: 8. The Other Guy

Hard to see the high-water mark when we’re all in a swamp.

90 mins since last posting … am i reading this t.v. right: 55-45 for HRC with 90% in?

hmmm … that AND the spurs up (coincidence? i think not) … a good night.

10 points. I’m giddy. GIDDY!

Apparently God is saying, “You’re welcome.”

Congratulations to Hillary Clinton. She ran a great campaign in PA.

Wait…did you say that the next round is on you? When and where?

Woo Hoo. A 10 point win is a whopping margin! After being outspent 2 to 1, Clinton’s win is pretty epic. Now we need a really hard-nosed assessment of which candidate is more electable in November under the Electoral College 270 vote requirement. National polls are meaningless.

Good work Pink Lady

Double digits :)

PL, congrats to you and Chelsea. Mom done good.

Congratulations. Now about that round….

I’ll take a Real Ale Brownhouse Brew.

Once again Obama couldn’t close. He had 34,000 at a rally, and yet the rookie cant close the show. Looks good. Talks good. Breaks attendance records.

Loses the game.

Re: 18. John Cobarruvias

As opposed to the 30 other states that he “closed” in and won?

Step away from the spin sir.

Lefty, do you mean the pure red state caucuses he won by motivating a bunch of college kids with more money than sense to swamp? Or perhaps the pure red deep South states he won by carrying the Black vote 90-10?

Edit: Time, of course, rather than money is what college kids have in excess.

Re: 20. The REAL Blue

teh question is: and will continue to be, will white flight win it war bush 3 or will democrats vote for either HRCor BO, whichever gets the nod.

God, it is too bad that rednecks and rich fokes would rather see their kids slaughtered than have peace.

Re: 13. Pink Lady
how’s yer head this a.m.?

wine hangover …….uuggghhhh.

Re: 20. The REAL Blue

Obama also won votes (as opposed to caucuses) in WA, KS, MO, WI, IL, VT, and MD, none of which are pure red or southern.
If you want to sniff at his campaign’s strategy to win the caucuses according to the rules set up by the state parties (which seems like a good idea to me), I guess that’s ok, but at least get your facts right.

And, begrudgingly, congrats to your candidate, PL.

Er, Washington was a caucus. That’s why Obama was able to capture it 2:1 and capture a net gain of 27 delegates. Kansas, despite having a Democratic governor, acts as a Western red state. Missouri…he won by, what, a few thousand votes? Illinois is his home state.

That’s the best you’ve got, Denton?

Here are the no-chance states that are going to give Obama the nomination:
Georgia: 40 net delegates
Alaska: 5 net delegates
Idaho: 15 net delegates (a larger effect than PA!)
Kansas: 16 net delegates
Louisiana: 10 net delegates
Mississippi: 8 net delegates
Nebraska: 13 net delegates
North Dakota: 10 net delegates
South Carolina: 13 net delegates
Texas: 9 net delegates (and an absolute travesty of a system allowing caucuses to overturn the popular vote)
Utah: 5 net delegates
Wyoming: 5 net delegates

That’s 149 net gain of pledged delegates gained in states that Obama has NO CHANCE of carrying in November.

Enough politics, I’m anxiously awaiting Smooch’s next post on the bloody bachelor bloke. the hometown visits were out of control!

Re: 26. The REAL Blue

Washington was a primacaucus. He won both.
As for the other states, are you suggesting that the Dem party shouldn’t hold primaries there?
For some reason I have this sneaking suspicion that if the shoe were on the other foot you’d have an explanation for why Hillary’s wins in these states proves that she should be the nominee.
The fact is that when all is said and done, Obama will have won more raw votes in the primaries, more total states, and more delegates.
What else ya got?

PL must still be hungover, no post yet.

Re: 28. The Best Ever Death Metal Band in Denton

More states? Sure.

More votes? Not at all certain. It’s just as likely Hillary will pull ahead in the popular.

More delegates? Maybe, but a fractional, not commanding, lead.

The simple fact is that this is still a two person race and will remain that way for a while. The rationale for ‘Hillary needs to drop out’ is specious at best. At worst, it makes Obama supporters look like ‘tards. Not saying you are, just that you appear that way with oversimplistic analysis and a ‘50%+1 equals a landslide’ mentality.

Is it just me or are the Obama supporters starting to sound like the Bushies of the left. I voted for the guy in March and kinda regret it now.

Re: 30. mcblogger

Nice.
Let me bore you with some more oversimplistic analysis: Clinton has little or no chance of overtaking Obama in the popular unless you count the flawed MI and FL votes. She can’t overtake him in number of states or delegates won.
If this analysis is “retarded,” which kindergarten word would you use to describe the argument that the candidate who almost surely loses the popular vote, loses most of the states, and has the fewest delegates going into the convention deserves the nomination?

Re: 36. The Best Ever Death Metal Band in Denton

Nice slap down dude.

Re: 34. mcblogger

No one is saying Hillary needs to drop out, No one is claiming a landslide. I was pointing out the faults in the spin that Obama can’t “close” and TBEDMBiD was bolstering my argument. Also I think there are some states that Obama wins in the general that the REAL blue has listed as no chance (I’m looking at you Louisiana)

Re: 35. poindexter

How much did PL pay you to say that?

Re: 38. Lefty

“No one is saying Hillary needs to drop out….”

If by “no one” you exclude the New York Times.

Re: 35. poindexter

It’s just you.

New york times? never heard of it…is that a new blog?

I of course meant no one had brought it up as part of the above discussion, and McNobodyReadsMyBlog was whining about it to deflect criticism of the spin that Obama can’t close.

Re: 39. Pinko Heart

Not a thing. It was my wife who noticed it first. She’s one of those Hilary voters that may go for McCain is Obama gets the nomination. And she has never voted for a Republican for anything. Personally it feels like 1972 all over again, w/ Obama as McGovern and Hillary as Humphrey.

Re: 42. poindexter

Please God, NOT 1972. It made me vote for Nixon. But then again, I was just 18 :)

Re: 42. poindexter

Your analogy works to a point–Humphrey was the compromised pro-war candidate for the Dems in 72 just like Hillary is now. But I’ll go you one better. I think it feels like 1968, with Billary playing the part of Mayor Daley trying to ram the establishment candidate through in an undemocratic process.
In my analogy McCain is Nixon and, I don’t know, Edwards is Pigasus. I hate Nixon but I have a sweet spot for Pigasus.
http://pigofknowledge.blogspot.com/2007/01/pigasus-and-yippies.html

Re: 45. The Best Ever Death Metal Band in Denton

Nice link. Damn funny.

Re: 30. The REAL Blue

As long as we’re playing this game, here’s HRC’s net delegate count in four of the BIG states that the Dem nominee is going to win in November, regardless of whether the nominee is HRC or BO:

NJ - 11
Mass - 17
CA - 36
NY - 46
TOTAL = 110 net delegates for HRC

If we’re going to begrudge BO his net delegate totals from states the Dems won’t win, we might as well take HRC’s net delegate count in states the Dems will win off the table as well (revealing how silly this argument about big, little, red, blue states may actually be).

For what it’s worth, win the above 4 states and you are 41% of the way to the Presidency in November (in terms of the 270 delegates needed to win).

Of course the November delegate math is all that really matters:

John Kerry had 252 electoral votes in 2004 by winning: HI, WA, OR, CA, MN, WI, MI, IL, PA, MD, DE, NJ, CT, RI, MA, NY, VT, NH.

If BO can hold onto those states (which I believe either HRC or BO will absolutely do), then it’s a dog fight for: OH (20), FLA (27), NM (5), NV (5), which gives either of them multiple paths to the Presidency. The intriguing one is VA (13), which I believe BO puts into play, but that HRC cannot win. Maybe BO can’t win FLA (McC gets the old folks vote?), but HRC probably can. Win VA and either NM or NV and BO wins. Win either OH or FLA and BO/HRC wins (or 2/3 of OH, PA, FLA). Hillary can definitely win AR and maybe TN. I’m not sure how being African American or a woman hurts/helps elsewhere in the South. I wouldn’t be surprised if enthusiasm among African Americans puts a couple of these states in play for BO.

Bush won by close margins in a handful of states: Nevada = 8,000 votes, NM = 2,000 votes, OH = 120,000 votes, FLA = 16,000 votes, CO = 28,000 votes, WV = 30,000 votes and VA = 134,000 votes (this may seem insurmountable, but it’s not…VA has a Dem gov and will soon have 2 Dem Senators). The spread in AR was 10,000 votes. In MS it was 90,000.

The point is, either BO or HRC will make a very strong candidate in Nov. - despite the baggage they have (e.g. can HRC win back AAs and college grads….can BO woo women and middle class whites) and the nastiness of the current campaign. Either will be the odds-on favorite to win this election. McCain may be getting a free pass right now, but he isn’t holding the winning hand and needs to draw out.

Re: 47. Outsider

Looks like someone did their homework…

Obama has to defend MI because of the disenfranchisement issue. Hillary does not. Obama has to defend PA (and could lose it). That’s a safe state for Hillary.

Obama will lose Florida, won’t even be competitive. Hillary wins Florida (and the presidency). Hillary wins Ohio. Obama begins at a disadvatage there.

The Democrats are casting aside a clear victory–and a better president–in favor of an untested, possibly radical, lightweight who gives a good speech and little else.

Re: 49. The REAL Blue

Obama did not compete in Michigan because he was a team player. “Uncommitted” gave Hillary a run for her money there. (In addition, if you were honest about this and put Uncommitted’s votes in Obama’s column you would have to admit that HRC has no chance at winning the popular vote.)
Even so, do you honestly think a MI voter would ponder this for a millisecond when trying to decide how to vote between whoever the Dem nominee is and a third term for Bushonomics? Come on.
Last, with due respect, no matter who you support, if you think BO is an “untested, possibly radical, lightweight who gives a good speech and little else,” you simply have not been paying attention for the last year

Re: 45. The Best Ever Death Metal Band in Denton

I was thinking that McGovern had all those college students excited in the spring and by fall, well they just weren’t there.

Re: 49. The REAL Blue

HRC still has the higher negatives, including her spouse.

If Ds cast aside Hillary, then BO wins the election and down ballot D’s reap benefits. If D’s cast aside BO, then D’s stand to lose support of black voters, and are more likely to lose in November, all down the line.

And yes, I’m biased against Bill. She should have dumped his sorry ass a long time ago.

Obama took his name off the ballot in Michigan to pander in Iowa and New Hampshire, not to be a “team player.”

Re: 37. West Texas Hillbilly

Amen to that. Go Denton. Love you buddy.

Re: 35. poindexter

What the hell are you TALKING about?

Re: 49. The REAL Blue

Kerry won MI by 200,000 and FLA votes in 2004 and FLA by 250,000. PA and MI have been blue since 1992.

As far as MI is concerned, the economy has gotten far worse since then so it’s definitely a blue state to lose…with the exception being if Romney is on the GOP ticket, then you may have to put in McCain’s column.

For PA, it will need to be contested, but it’s a fairly safe state for Obama as well. If BO has Rendell, Nutter’s and Ravenstahl’s (mayors of Philly and Pittsburgh who backed Clinton in the primary) political machines behind him (and the the Clintons, who apparently are very popular there) he will win PA.

FLA and OH have been toss-ups in every election for years. There is no guarantee for any candidate in those states. No disrespect, but If we’re going to use your logic and discount BO’s performance in “red” states and overstate the importance of losses in “big” states that the dems will lose anyway, why not just put together a ticket with Dem senators from FLA and OH and call it a day?

Re: 49. The REAL Blue

Can we please define “untested” once again for the cheap seats in the back? I’m at a loss as to what it means, considering that Hillary’s never been president, either.

Re: 57. Lurkette’

given her husband’ s penchants, she’s probably been tested for AIDS.

Re: 36. The Best Ever Death Metal Band in Denton

Actually, as of now, she’s ahead in the popular. As for the delegates, it seems pretty clear that neither are going to Denver with the number of delegates they need.

You know, D caucus goers have been excellent at making sure Republicans are elected for a long time. Of course, he’s played by the rules which has helped with delegates, but I gotta say, OH, PA, TX and CA. WTF? How does such a strong candidate, who does so well in caucuses, lose these states?

Obviously, you think only Obama can beat McCain. I think that’s ridiculous. Regardless, this wasn’t my point at all… it’s that everyone is burned TF out on the ‘Hillary should quit’ meme.

Re: 59. mcblogger

According to real clear politics Obama still has a plurality of a half-million votes after PA. Maybe you know something they don’t.

“Actually, as of now, she’s ahead in the popular.”

Actually I’m ahead in the popular, In the Independent state of Leftonia, my wife, my labrador, and I all voted for me. of course Sen’s Clinton and Obama were not on the ballot. But I see that having all the candidates on the ballot isn’t a criteria for counting a states popular vote.

Yes we get it, you’re tired of the Greek chorus singing Hillary should drop out. That complaint is still unrelated to the discussion about states and delegates won and the “closing” spin. But I promise will be noted for the record.

Anyone who calls Obama an “untested, possibly radical, lightweight who gives a good speech and little else” is either a fu*cking Republican or fu*cking a Republican.

Re: 62. JohnCornyn’sBoxTurtle

A-fu*cking-men.